Florida is one of a handful of swing states that will play a key role in deciding the outcome of the presidential election, ... the presumptive Democratic nominee, ... 2016 Exit Polls. and over 1 Mio. Maine also has one of the closest Senate races, in which Democrats are narrowly favored to pick up a seat. Rather than eat your fingers worrying about Michigan and Wisconsin, where the results won’t be known for days, you should pay closer attention to their Great Lakes sibling, as Minnesota’s secretary of state has said that he expects winners to be announced “on Election Night or shortly thereafter.” As always, be prepared for the first tallies to skew Democratic, as the state has been counting mail-in ballots for several weeks. In 2016, 68% of the total votes were cast early. More details about AP VoteCast's methodology are available here. We’re still waiting for more votes to be counted in 32 counties. They will likely have to win by well more than 1 million votes to have a chance at the state. Forget the Exit Polls, Watch Florida, Ignore Pennsylvania. Here’s how it will work ›, President-elect Biden has shifted leftward since the primary, but he has hardly embraced the bold agenda of progressives. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information. Nearly 90 percent of a recent batch of votes went to Biden, adding 3,868 to his margin. Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Key figures and rankings about brands and companies, Consumer insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about regions and countries, Everything you need to know about Consumer Goods, Identify market potentials of the digital future, Technology Market Outlook by Jordan Kirkland | Nov 3, 2020. The coronavirus pandemic and its devastating economic fallout are two major issues that have an impact on the election. Statista. However, Biden held a narrow 1 percent lead over Trump as the candidate whom voters believed would manage the pandemic better, and a majority of voters also told pollsters that they believed containing COVID-19 spread was important to do quickly, even if efforts to do so temporarily impact the economy. Pay particularly close attention to turnout and margin in Maricopa County, which is basically the Phoenix metro. In, New York Times. These estimates reflect the preferences of 5,906 voters in Florida. Democrats have not won Texas since 1976, but the state’s record turnout numbers have some liberals dreaming about a Lone Star revolution.
Polls showed a tight race between him and Joseph R. Biden Jr. Nearly all of the estimated vote total has been reported. What else to watch for: I’ll also be looking to the New England states New Hampshire and Maine. Arizona won’t have any votes for a bit—the first big batch of early and absentee ballots should start trickling out around 10 p.m.—but this is another close state to watch for the rest of the evening.
In 2016, Clinton was expected to win New Hampshire comfortably, but instead she won by less than half a percent. Exit polls from Florida and Michigan indicated that Clinton was getting creamed in rural areas. (Which, to be clear, is something he does not have the legal authority to do.). Data for absentee votes may not be available in some places. facts. Republicans are narrowly expected to win key Senate elections in Iowa and Montana. What to ignore: Buzzy exit polls, “blue mirages,” and the urge to be a hyperconfident Election Night detective. Since Election Day votes will be counted first, we are likely to see a “red mirage” in the state, as Trump goes up early on Election Day, only to have his lead eroded by Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots that are counted during the week. ET on November 3, 2020. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. The North Carolina State Board of Elections says that 80 percent of all votes—including early in-person votes and mail-in ballots—will be counted by 7:30 p.m. That means we’ll likely get a huge chunk of data very quickly. Clinton ultimately won Wayne County by 37 points. Where polls close: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. They have been adjusted to match the actual vote count.
Florida is one of six key swing states that Trump and Biden are battling to win in the race for the presidency. Early exit polling results from a survey of the state’s voters are below. The estimates shown here reflect the responses of 3,412 likely voters. Tight Georgia Race Comes Down to Metro Atlanta, Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election in Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District ›, Darrell Issa, Republican, wins California’s 50th Congressional District ›, David Schweikert, Republican, wins re-election in Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District ›, Conor Lamb, Democrat, wins re-election in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District ›, See absentee ballots returned in each state. In Colorado, Democratic former Governor John Hickenlooper is expected to defeat the incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner. What was happening around this time four years ago: Indiana and Kentucky were called almost immediately for Trump.
But another sign said, “Orange Crushed.”, Michael D. Shear, in Washington 10:10 AM ET. The election will be weird, no matter what. Source: Exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, The new county with the longest streak of picking presidential winners is Clallam County, Wash., population 77,000, which has gotten every election right since 1980. Chart. Another thing to watch here is the Senate race, in which the Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, is projected to defeat the Republican incumbent, Senator Thom Tillis. In the chaotic special election for the second Georgia Senate seat, currently held by Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, the Democrat Raphael Warnock is projected to win the plurality of votes. Texas is expected to report most of its votes on Election Night. Biden is expected to win here by nearly 10 points. Some states and counties will report candidate vote totals for mail-in ballots, but some places may not report comprehensive vote type data. This feature is limited to our corporate solutions. Trump dominated rural New England places where Obama had won easily, which presaged his nationwide grip on the rural white vote. Share of registered voters who think Biden will win presidential election U.S. 2020, U.S. presidential election: polling average for president, November 2020, Trump presidential job approval 2017-2020, Favorability of Joe Biden among U.S. adults November 2020. Summary of 2016 Exit Poll data that shows the proportion of how different groups voted. Both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist project that Biden will eke out a narrow victory in Georgia this year. The numbers on this page are preliminary estimates from exit polls. Biden has returned home from church and his team has called a lid, meaning he is not expected to appear in person again today. As Biden’s lead increases in Georgia, the remaining votes are coming from about 22,000 military and overseas voters, as well as provisional ballots that required additional information, such as missing IDs. As in Pennsylvania, a full count in Michigan could take several days or a full week, so you’re not going to learn much in the first few hours. Hovering above these probabilistic outcomes are the wraith of a once-in-a-century pandemic and the miasmic threat that Trump will go full American Tito by prematurely crowning himself the winner and announcing the mass invalidation of votes. Early exit polls conducted in Florida indicated that four times as many conservative or moderate voters cast ballots in the 2020 election than liberals. In 2016, Trump won the state by five points. Florida Republicans predict big night for Trump ahead of exit polls. Trump took the state by eight points in 2016, but polls indicate that Biden has clawed back much of that deficit.
Vermont was called almost immediately for Hillary Clinton. You have 4 free articles remaining this month, Sign-up to our daily newsletter for more articles like this + access to 5 extra articles.
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